US Power Use and Oil Output Expected to Break Records in 2025
The United States is expected to reach new energy highs in 2025, with electricity use and crude oil output both hitting levels never seen before. The rise is being pushed by two powerful forces — the rapid growth of artificial intelligence data centers and the continued expansion of oil drilling in key regions.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), electricity use is forecast to reach 4,189 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025, breaking the 2024 record of 4,097 billion. At the same time, crude oil production is expected to average 13.4 million barrels per day, keeping the US ahead of all other countries in oil output.
AI Data Centers Drive Demand for More Power
One of the main reasons for this surge is the sharp increase in electricity needs from AI systems and cryptocurrency mining, both of which are hosted in large-scale data centers. These centers are already major power consumers, but projections suggest their electricity use could triple — from 200 terawatt-hours in 2025 to 600 terawatt-hours by 2030.
The commercial sector, which includes these data centers, is expected to grow electricity use by an average of 2.6% each year through 2026. Some AI-optimized facilities are so large that a single site can require as much as 2 gigawatts of power — enough to serve an entire mid-sized city.
For almost 20 years, national electricity demand was mostly flat due to efficiency improvements balancing out growth in population and industry. Now, AI and computing power needs are rising faster than any other use in buildings and may overtake traditional uses like lighting and air conditioning by mid-century.
Oil Production Reaches Historic Levels
The country’s oil fields are also breaking records. In May 2025, monthly crude production reached 13.488 million barrels per day. The Permian Basin in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico leads this growth, producing nearly half of all US oil and set to reach 6.6 million barrels per day in 2025.
Advances in drilling — such as longer horizontal wells and multi-well pad setups — have greatly increased output. Texas remains the top producer at 5.752 million barrels per day, while New Mexico has grown to 2.199 million barrels per day, an 8.9% increase compared to last year.
EIA forecasts that production will likely peak at about 13.6 million barrels per day by late 2025 before slowly declining if oil prices fall. Even with a slowdown ahead, current levels strengthen US energy independence and keep the country a key player in global markets.
Strain on Energy Infrastructure
With both electricity demand and oil production at record levels, the country’s energy infrastructure is under heavy pressure. Power companies are expected to spend $212.1 billion in 2025 on new plants and transmission lines, with investment projected to reach $228.1 billion by 2027.
In the oil industry, pipeline expansions like the Matterhorn Express have eased past bottlenecks in the Permian Basin, allowing more oil to reach refineries and export terminals.
This combination of rising digital energy needs and strong oil output shows how technology and traditional energy production are reshaping the US energy system in ways that will have long-term effects on both the economy and the environment.
Personal Analysis
This trend tells us two things about the US energy system. First, AI is no longer just a software story — it is a physical industry that needs massive amounts of power. Second, oil production continues to expand even while cleaner energy is being promoted. The real challenge will be managing both sides: keeping the power grid stable under heavier loads while balancing the environmental impact of record fossil fuel output. If the US can handle both without major blackouts or supply disruptions, it will be an example of how a large economy adapts to rapid technology change without losing its energy security.
Sources: eia.gov
