U.S. defense and intelligence leaders have conceded that they cannot fully account for Iran’s stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium in the wake of American airstrikes on key nuclear facilities, despite bold claims by senior officials that Tehran’s nuclear ambitions were “obliterated.” According to NBC News and ABC News reports, inspectors last verified over 400 kilograms of 60 percent-enriched uranium at the Isfahan site just days before the strikes, but satellite imagery suggests Iran may have moved those materials into undisclosed locations after breaking seals set by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
The missing uranium stockpile—which could fuel up to nine or ten simple nuclear weapons—has become a central concern for the U.S. and its allies. Satellite photos show vehicles and containers entering underground tunnels at both Isfahan and Fordo shortly before the raids, indicating that Iranian authorities might have anticipated the attack and concealed their enriched uranium. Because the entire inventory fits into as few as sixteen small containers, analysts warn it would be relatively easy to hide, complicating any effort to reestablish a clear material balance.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth spoke on the Pentagon steps, insisting that “Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been obliterated” and that U.S. forces “devastated the Iranian program” without seeking regime change. He emphasized that the operation used precision bunker-busting bombs from B-2 stealth bombers to disable the Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan sites without creating a wider conflict. Vice President J.D. Vance struck a more cautious tone by acknowledging that “additional steps will be needed in the coming weeks to address any remaining enriched uranium” while still claiming the strikes had pushed back Iran’s timetable by “many, many years.” He stressed that the U.S. remains “at war with Iran’s nuclear program” and not with the Iranian people.
Independent experts offer a far less triumphant assessment. Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute noted that critical components of Iran’s enrichment network remain intact and that the operation fell short of eliminating Iran’s capacity to rebuild. Similarly, David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security pointed out that “significant quantities of enriched uranium are almost certainly still hidden,” and that the strikes may have convinced Iran to deepen its facilities underground, making future verification all the more difficult.
The IAEA now faces an unprecedented challenge in tracking nuclear materials that inspectors once could verify by the gram. Former IAEA official Tariq Rauf warned that trying to account for Iran’s nearly 9,000 kilograms of enriched uranium without access to declared sites will be “extremely tough.” Moreover, intelligence reports indicate that Iran may operate thousands of centrifuges at secret locations, further eroding confidence in the global monitoring regime and increasing the risks of unchecked enrichment activities.
Personal Analysis
In my view, the U.S. administration’s public declarations of decisive success clash sharply with the on-the-ground reality that critical nuclear materials have vanished from view. The eagerness to portray the strikes as a knockout blow may undermine long-term verification efforts, as Iran now has every incentive to conceal future enrichment in undisclosed caverns. If the United States and its partners cannot reestablish a robust inspection regime, the operation’s tactical gains risk yielding strategic setbacks, leaving the world with even less clarity on Tehran’s true nuclear capabilities.
Sources: The New York Times, WSJ
